Regime update — Market risk elevated

Regime probability has consolidated in the Elevated band over the past five sessions. The shift is being driven less by a single catalyst and more by the simultaneous repricing of risk across multiple lenses: VIX term structure, realized-vs-implied compression, and a quiet widening in credit spreads.

Cross-asset stress is contained for now. FX volatility is firm but not extended, and rates volatility remains well-behaved. The base case is a sustained Elevated regime rather than an immediate transition into Stress.

Risk-aware framing: position sizing should reflect the regime, not the headline VIX level. Elevated regimes reward patience, smaller increments, and explicit hedging discipline.