April 2026 — Early signs of VIX expansion

Headline VIX has drifted from the low-15s into the high-17s over the past two weeks, with the front-month curve flattening against the four-month. Realized volatility has begun to catch up to implied — a sign that hedging demand is being matched by actual price movement.

Equity breadth has narrowed quietly underneath the index level. The combination of curve flattening, narrowing breadth, and sticky front-month implied is consistent with an elevated regime: not stress, but a meaningful step away from calm.

The dashboard is currently classifying the regime as Elevated with rising confidence. We are watching for a clean term-structure inversion or a sustained realized-vs-implied compression as the next confirmation signals.